Israeli forces dominate but Hezbollah has ground advantage

After a fortnight of mayhem in the ranks and files of Hezbollah, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) commenced limited, localised, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on the night of September 30, 2024.
Codenamed Operation ‘Northern Arrows’, these operations are backed by precision strikes from the Israeli Air Force and artillery fire. These ground operations, small in scale and scope, are viewed as a precursor to a possible full-scale ground offensive into southern Lebanon later.
Well before commencing these limited ground operations, Israel conducted what is known in military terminology as the ‘preparation of the battlefield’ and ‘softening of the target’. Beginning with the pager attacks on September 17, a series of Israeli assaults, including remote detonations and airstrikes that eliminated key Hezbollah leaders, culminated in the most shocking airstrike that killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.
Within a span of 10 days, Israeli strikes, aided by precise intelligence, have taken out Hezbollah’s entire leadership structure and disrupted their communication and control network. Israel has also made significant gains by successfully targeting weapon depots and rocket and missile launch platforms, severely degrading Hezbollah’s fighting potential. As the ground operations now unfold, it is crucial to examine how the opposing forces compare.
Asymmetry in the conflict: Israel vs Hezbollah
The IDF is undoubtedly far superior to Hezbollah or any other fighting group in this conflict. Technologically superior, better equipped, and highly organised, with the backing of its Western allies, it threatens to overrun any military opposition on the battlefield.
According to ‘The Military Balance 2023’ report, Israel has an active military of 1,69,500, with the army comprising the bulk at 1,26,000. Additionally, it has almost 1,40,000 reserves. Global Power rankings place Israel as the fourth-largest military in the region, with only Turkey, Egypt, and Iran ahead of it. And globally, it holds the 18th spot.
In terms of air power, Israel holds absolute superiority with a fleet of the most modern fighter aircraft, including F-15, F-16 and F-35 jets. Its arsenal comprises around 350 aircraft, organised into 14 fighter squadrons, 2 squadrons of AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and many other aircraft in various support roles. Additionally, it has a whole range of armed and unarmed UAVs, including the famous Heron armed UAVs.
In terms of air defence too, the IDF enjoys an unmatched advantage. Its arsenal of air defence and anti-missile systems is led by the short-range Iron Dome (anti-rocket system), complemented by the David’s Sling system, the long-range M901 Patriot PAC-2, and the Arrow anti-missile system. As a result of this superiority, the IDF has been able to strike Hezbollah targets with impunity using its fighter jets, while, at the same time, it has been able to intercept most of the rockets fired by Hezbollah.
In terms of ground forces, the IDF has more than 1,000 Merkava Main Battle Tanks (MBT), 1,200 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC), over 500 artillery guns, including 30 Multiple Rocket Launchers (MRL), and a host of other weapons and surveillance systems. Also, the IDF benefits from direct support from the US in terms of intelligence, surveillance, and strike capabilities.
Hezbollah, on the other hand, is largely on its own, with Iran unlikely to join directly in this conflict. Although Hezbollah claims to have more than 1,00,000 fighters, recent setbacks have likely dealt a significant blow to morale, leadership and direction among its ranks.
However, Hezbollah’s strength comes from its vast arsenal of rockets and missiles, estimated to be 1,50,000 in numbers. Unguided rockets like the Katyusha missiles, with a range of 30 km comprise the bulk of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal. It also has Iranian rockets such as Raad (Arabic for thunder), Fajr (dawn) and Zilzal (earthquake) rockets, which have a more powerful payload and longer range than Katyushas. Burkan (volcano) missiles are even more potent and can carry an explosive payload of 300-500 kg. It also has Iranian-made Falaq 1 and Falaq 2 rockets. The Qadar-1 ballistic missile is also reported to be in Hezbollah’s inventory with a warhead of 500 kg and an extended range, and it was used by Hezbollah for the first time on September 25 when it targeted Tel Aviv.
In the face of an IDF ground offensive, Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles, including the Russian-made Kornet, could prove effective, as seen in the 2006 war with Israel, when the use of anti-tank weapons by Hezbollah destroyed more than 50 Israeli Merkava tanks, and it was a major reason for the stalled Israeli offensive.
In the ongoing Gaza war, Hezbollah has, for the first time, used drones carrying explosives. These are mostly short-range drones supplied, which are cheap and relatively easy to produce. Currently, unlike Iran and the Houthis, Hezbollah is not known to possess any hypersonic missiles, which seem beyond the IDF’s interception capabilities at present.
However, Hezbollah holds a definite advantage with its well-trained and highly motivated Special Forces, who specialise in guerilla warfare. Having fought Israel in 2006, where they successfully halted Israeli forces before they could reach the Litani River in the North, these battle-hardened fighters are capable of inflicting damage through raids.
With the terrain in southern Lebanon, where ground operations are likely to occur, consisting of rolling hills and defiladed positions, these forces – equipped with handheld and shoulder-fired weapons – could pose a significant challenge to Israeli ground operations.
Having the ability to operate in small teams, they merge into the terrain, utilise an intricate tunnel network and employ unconventional tactics to close in on the enemy forces undetected. So much so, that the IDF refers to them as ‘ghost soldiers’, as they appear out of nowhere and are a major deterrent.
Who holds the edge?
The IDF clearly appears to hold a disproportionate advantage over Hezbollah. While some militia groups in Syria and Iraq have pledged support, including the option to despatch fighters to join Hezbollah, this is unlikely to significantly impact current Israeli operations. Iran, despite having pledged to support Hezbollah and exact revenge from Israel, is currently in a total state of chaos and confusion, with its proxies suffering major losses in recent weeks. As Iran brainstorms its future strategy, it is unlikely to be drawn into the war directly.
Israel, buoyed by its recent successes, would want to force home the advantage and secure its objective of the safe return of settlers in the North before Hezbollah has the time to regroup and reorganise. However, the IDF would do well to restrict its ground operations to small, team-based operations rather than launching a full-scale offensive, where Hezbollah fighters could have the upper hand.
(Colonel Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been the Director of Military Intelligence and Director of the Ministry of External Affairs)